With an estimated 11 million undocumented migrants living in the United States, the idea of implementing mass deportations poses serious logistical, legal, and social challenges. Despite promises of large-scale deportations, data from the Department of Homeland Security and the Pew Research Center show that this group of people has remained at stable levels since 2005, and the majority are long-term residents. Nearly four out of five of these migrants have been in the country for at least a decade, forming communities, contributing to the economy, and establishing roots in the United States.
Rights and due process
Contrary to what many believe, undocumented migrants cannot be deported immediately; they are protected by the right to due process. This means that, before being deported, they must have a court hearing. In the face of any mass deportation initiative, the immigration court system, which is already overburdened and facing significant backlogs, would have to expand drastically to handle the number of cases. Currently, the system has been accumulating cases for years, and each new case added implies a prolonged wait before a final resolution.
The complexity of deportations
The deportation process is long and complicated, with several steps that require time and resources. First, detainees must be identified and arrested, a task that often begins not with ICE agents, but with local police.
However, in many cities, laws exist that limit cooperation between local law enforcement agencies and ICE, making it difficult for ICE to access individuals in custody.
Furthermore, it is not enough to detain an undocumented immigrant. Once detained, the migrant must remain in a detention center or an alternative program while awaiting a hearing before an immigration judge. These detention centers have limited capacity, and many are already operating at full capacity.
Legal and diplomatic implications
A mass deportation program would also generate legal implications. Human rights organizations have already anticipated that such measures could lead to multiple lawsuits, questioning the legality and respect for the rights of immigrants. In addition, destination countries must cooperate to receive the deportees, which adds a diplomatic layer to the process. Without the cooperation of the recipient country, deportation becomes even more complicated.
ICE resources and the implementation challenge
With approximately 20,000 ICE agents and support staff, a key question arises: will this force be sufficient to search for, find, and process millions of people? In a mass deportation scenario, it would be necessary to allocate more resources, train new agents, and expand the capacity of detention centers. Without these expansions, the effort would be unsustainable.
Economic damages
A new report from the American Immigration Council, a research and policy organization focused on immigration rights, estimates that deporting even one million undocumented immigrants per year would cost more than $88 billion dollars annually, for a total of $967.9 billion over more than ten years.
The report acknowledges that there are significant cost variables depending on how such an operation would be carried out and states that its estimate does not take into account the loss of worker tax revenue or the broader economic loss if individuals were to self-deport and U.S. businesses lost labor.
The report estimates that a one-time effort to deport even more people in a single year could cost around $315 billion, including approximately $167 billion to detain immigrants en masse.
According to the group, the two largest costs would be hiring additional personnel to carry out deportation raids and building and operating mass detention centers. “There would be no way to carry out this mission without mass detention as an intermediate step,” the report notes. Trump campaign officials agree that one of the biggest logistical challenges in any mass deportation effort would be building and operating new detention centers as a temporary solution.
Trump's senior adviser, Stephen Miller, has repeatedly claimed that if Trump wins the presidency, his team plans to build facilities to house between 50,000 and 70,000 people. By comparison, the total population in U.S. prisons and jails in 2022, including people in local, county, state, and federal facilities, currently stands at 1.9 million people.
What can we do?
The implementation of a mass deportation program is a challenge that requires considerable investment in resources, time, and cooperation among various local, federal, and international entities.
The complexity of the process and the long time each case takes highlight that the reality of mass deportation is not as simple as it is presented in the discourse.
However, in this scenario it is essential to have the support of an immigration lawyer.
Call us at 202-709-6439 o click here for a consultation directly with attorney Lauren Eagan.
This information is for educational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice.