Former President Donald Trump, now President-elect, has announced his intention to implement a mass deportation operation once he takes office again on January 20. This plan, which aims to deport millions of immigrants living in the United States without legal status or with temporary protections, poses serious logistical, social, and economic challenges. Additionally, it threatens to divide families and significantly impact key sectors of the economy. This article explores which groups of immigrants could be most affected and the potential consequences of these policies.

Where Do Immigrants Without Legal Status Live?

In 2022, it was estimated that approximately 11 million people were living in the United States without legal status. This number may have risen to between 13 and 14 million by 2024, according to some analysts. Most of these immigrants reside in states like California, Texas, Florida, and New York. California leads the list with 2.2 million undocumented immigrants, followed by Texas with 1.8 million and Florida with 936,000.

Nearly half of these immigrants live in “sanctuary states” like California and New York, which have laws or policies that limit cooperation with federal immigration authorities. However, many also reside in sanctuary cities or counties within states without statewide laws, such as New Mexico. These areas could become significant points of tension in the implementation of Trump’s plans.

Main Countries of Origin

Nearly half of the undocumented immigrants in the U.S. come from Mexico, totaling 4.8 million people in 2022, according to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Other significant countries include Guatemala (750,000), El Salvador (710,000), and Honduras (560,000). Additionally, the past year has seen a significant increase in immigrants from countries like Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, who have arrived through humanitarian programs implemented during the Biden administration.

Trump has indicated plans to end these humanitarian programs, which could leave millions of people in immediate vulnerability.

Impact on Workers and the Economy

Most undocumented immigrants are of working age, with 8.7 million between 18 and 54 years old. Many hold essential roles in sectors such as agriculture, construction, hospitality, and caregiving. In the agricultural sector, an estimated 283,000 workers lacked legal status in 2022, with roughly half in California. Some government estimates place the total number of undocumented agricultural workers closer to one million.

Agricultural organizations have warned that mass deportations could destabilize the U.S. food supply chain. The loss of essential workers would not only affect the economy but also increase food prices and cause shortages.

Mixed-Status Families

A particularly sensitive aspect of these policies is their impact on mixed-status families, where at least one member lacks legal status. According to FWD.us, an immigrant advocacy organization, up to 10.1 million undocumented people live with U.S. citizens or permanent residents. Among them, at least 5.1 million are U.S. citizen children with at least one parent lacking legal status.

Mass deportations could separate these families, forcing many children to grow up without one or both parents. Alternatively, families might choose to migrate together to the deported parent’s country of origin, drastically altering their lives.

Temporary Protections at Risk

Among undocumented immigrants are also over one million people with Temporary Protected Status (TPS) and approximately 535,000 “Dreamers” protected under the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program. TPS provides relief from deportation and work permits to individuals whose home countries are deemed unsafe due to armed conflicts, natural disasters, or other extraordinary circumstances.

During his first term, Trump attempted to end most TPS and DACA programs but faced a series of legal challenges that blocked these efforts. However, he has indicated plans to try again to eliminate these protections, putting hundreds of thousands of people at risk.

Legal and Social Implications

Trump’s mass deportation plans will also face a series of legal challenges. Sanctuary areas may resist federal initiatives by refusing to cooperate with immigration authorities. Additionally, courts will likely play a crucial role in addressing the inevitable lawsuits that arise.

Socially, these policies could exacerbate divisions within local communities, fueling fear and distrust among immigrants. They could also spark mass protests and mobilize human rights groups to defend immigrants.

What you need to consider

Trump’s proposed mass deportation plans have the potential to profoundly alter the demographics, economy, and social fabric of the United States. While the stated goal is to enforce immigration laws, the unintended consequences could be devastating for millions of families, key economic sectors, and entire communities. In a time of such uncertainty, it is crucial for affected individuals to seek information and legal support to protect their rights and plan for the future.